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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.